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Many Australians can expect mild temperatures and a chance of showers over the Easter weekend, while meteorologists predict a cyclone will form in the Coral Sea on Sunday.

The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a blend of fine days and showers for most capital cities over the coming days.

“No capital city is forecast to be completely dry. At the same time, no city should be a washout,” said senior meteorologist Jonathan How. “It’s nice to have a period of calmer weather before a potential cyclone next week.”

Sydney would see showers “from the get go”, he said, with maximums in the low to mid 20s and some rain most days except Monday.

Brisbane would be warmer – with temperatures reaching into the high 20s – and a chance of rain for the first three days of the long weekend. It would also be “pretty windy” along the Queensland coast, How said, with marine wind warnings expected to be in place along parts of the coast throughout the weekend.

Mostly fine weather was forecast for Melbourne from Friday to Sunday, with showers expected on Monday. Hobart would see a similar pattern.

Canberra would be mostly dry, with maximums temperatures ranging between 19 and 25C. Isolated showers, storms and temperatures in the 30s were forecast for Darwin.

Thunderstorms were expected to roll through inland Western Australia on Good Friday, with the possibility of some reaching Perth, How said. The city would see temperatures in the mid to high 20s over the four days.

Adelaide would be fine and “fairly warm”, he said, until possible showers arrived on Monday. Temperatures could hit 29C on Sunday. “If you leave chocolate out in the sun, it will melt,” How warned.

Despite the mostly settled conditions, How reminded people to check the forecast before heading out camping or to the beach.

Catchments were still soaked across Queensland’s north-east tropical coast, he said, so any showers could lead to isolated river and creek rises.

A tropical low labelled 37U, now located between Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, was expected to “deepen and strengthen” over the weekend, How said.

The system had a high chance of becoming a cyclone on Sunday, when it was over the northern Coral Sea, and was expected to move towards the Australian coast from mid next week. “It’s still a little bit too early to say whether it will cross the coast due to the range of different scenarios,” he said.

If the cyclone did form in Australian waters it would be called Owen. But as it was located near the boundary of Papua New Guinea and Fiji’s areas of responsibility, naming rights would depend on where it formed.