… and on that note, it’s a wrap for today!

• French president Emmanuel Macron praised Europe’s “predictability” during a visit to Japan, contrasting it with countries that “could hurt you without even informing you” in an apparent swipe at Donald Trump (13:37).

• His comments come as several European countries were forced to respond (11:31, 13:48, 15:55, 16:06) to latest quotes from US president Donald Trump implying he was considering pulling the US out of Nato amid his growing frustration with some allies (11:06, 11:13, 15:13, 15:49).

• Trump is expected to come back to the issue in his overnight address to the nation.

• But Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, said he spoke with Trump this afternoon and insisted that “problems are there to be solved, pragmatically” (17:02).

In other news,

• Russia dismissed Ukraine’s suggestion of an Easter ceasefire as a “PR stunt” and a delaying tactic by Kyiv, further complicating the latest talks about ending the conflict (14:01).

• The European Union has sought to ramp up pressure on Hungary to drop its veto on the €90bn loan for Ukraine, with the European Commission saying it will push ahead with its preparatory work for the loan to be paid out (12:41).

• UK’s prime minister Keir Starmer suggested his country could seek a closer relationship with the EU as a result of increasingly “volatile” global situation (11:42).

If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.

I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.

Finland’s president Alexander Stubb – often dubbed Europe’s “Trump whisperer,” although he always distances himself from that label – has spoken with the US president this afternoon ahead of what could be Trump’s pretty explosive speech later tonight.

Stubb summarised the call in a brief post on social media, saying:

“Spoke with @realDonaldTrump. Constructive discussion and exchange of ideas on Nato, Ukraine and Iran. Problems are there to be solved, pragmatically.”

It’s not just Hungary going to the polls this month, but it’s also Bulgaria – for the eighth time in just five years.

But the country’s caretaker prime minister insisted this will be the cleanest vote in years, hailing his government’s efforts to tackle misinformation and corruption.

Andrey Gyurov, who took office in February after the resignation of the previous administration following street protests last year, expressed hope that free and fair elections on 19 April would mark a turning point for voters’ confidence in institutions, Reuters reported.

The snap election will be the eighth in just five years for the EU and NATO member state amid deep political divisions.

With polls indicating that no party will win a majority, Gyurov – who previously worked as a deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank – urged politicians to concentrate on building solid coalitions that would allow Bulgaria to have a stable government, Reuters said.

Recent surveys show the Progressive Bulgaria centre-left coalition of former president Rumen Radev leading voting intentions with around 30% of the vote. Radev resigned as president in January to compete in the elections.

This week a report by the Civil Liberties Union for Europe, a Berlin-based human rights watchdog, ranked Bulgaria as one of five European countries that are undermining the rule of law, raising concerns about the state of the country.

Meanwhile, Hungary’s far-right Our Homeland party could become kingmaker after an 12 April election, as two opinion polls showed it is the only small party likely to win enough votes to enter parliament alongside the two main parties, Reuters reported.

Nationalist prime minister Viktor Orbán is trying to extend his 16-year hold on power but the centre-right Tisza party, led by former government insider Péter Magyar, leads Orbán’s Fidesz party in independent polls.

Surveys published by independent pollsters 21 Research Centre and Zavecz Research showed that Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) is the only party besides Tisza and Fidesz with a chance of winning the 5% of votes required to enter parliament.

21 Research Centre put support for Our Homeland at 5% among decided voters and Zavecz put it at 4%.

Our Homeland, which won 6.7% in a European parliament election in 2024, is part of the far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations group, which includes Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland. It campaigns on an anti-European Union, anti-migration and anti-vaccination platform and says it will fight corruption and crime, Reuters noted.

Meanwhile, Poland’s defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz responded to Trump’s comments on Nato, warning that just as “there is no Nato without the US, there is no strong US without allies either.”

“It works both ways,” he said, as he urged leaders to “keep a cool head.”

He continued:

“The world today is focuses more on the Middle East, but the security of Nato’s eastern flank does not take a back seat. Poland plays a key role here in building the region’s security architecture. We are consistently and independently strengthening both our own power and that of our alliance.”

Poland would be among the nations most affected by a potential US withdrawal from Nato as it has positioned itself as one of Washington’s closest European allies. It currently hosts some 10,000 US troops.

Earlier today, a junior French army minister also played down Trump’s comments, stressing that the Iran war has nothing to do with Nato.

“Let me remind you what Nato is. It is a military alliance concerned with the security of the Euro-Atlantic region. It is not designed to carry out operations in the Strait of Hormuz, which would be a breach of international law,” Alice Rufo said at the War + Peace conference in Paris, in comments reported by Reuters.

A German government spokesperson, when asked to react to Trump’s comment, said Germany remained committed to Nato.

“This isn’t the first time he’s done this, and since it’s a recurring phenomenon, you can probably judge the consequences for yourself,” the spokesperson told a regular government press conference, speaking of Trump.

One fairly important thing to note regarding Trump’s comments on Nato is that in both interviews – with the Telegraph (11:06) and with Reuters (15:49) – his strong comments only came in response to very targeted questions angling for that specific line.

That, obviously, does not necessarily mean he does not mean it anyway.

But we know that Trump likes to use very robust language for rhetorical effect, particularly with journalists, and even more so when he is displeased with the state of affairs or events not going his way.

For many European leaders, the real question on their minds will be: is there any actual policy intent behind this, or is it just another verbal outburst like his previous comments accusing Nato allies of being “cowards”?

In further lines now published by Reuters, Trump said he would state in an address to the national later today that he was “absolutely” considering withdrawing the US from Nato.

“I’ll be discussing my disgust with Nato,” he said of the speech. Asked if he was thinking about pulling out of Nato, he said: “Oh, absolutely without question. Wouldn’t you do that if you were me?”

“They haven’t been friends when we needed them,” Trump said. “We’ve never asked them for much ... it’s a one-way street.“

We are now getting more lines from the US president, Donald Trump, who spoke with Reuters ahead of his address to the nation later today.

Trump told the news agency that he is “absolutely” considering withdrawing US from Nato, and that he would express his “digust” with Nato in his speech, Reuters said.

I will bring you the full quotes once we have them.

Stock markets have rallied across the world after Donald Trump said the war in Iran would end in “two to three weeks”.

However, Ireland’s premier and deputy premier have said the economic damage being done by the war means that even that is too long.

Tanaiste Simon Harris, who is also Ireland’s finance minister, warned that in just over four weeks the scale of damage to the world’s energy infrastructure has been significant.

Harris said that two to three weeks “might sound like a relatively short period of time”, but the economic and humanitarian impact would be “extraordinarily concerning”.

He said:

“The war is currently ongoing for about 33 days; look at the scale of damage that has been done to the world’s energy infrastructure in that period of time.

We don’t have another 21 days, or thereabouts, to see de-escalation.

We’re already living through the largest energy crisis in the history of the world, bigger than the last three combined.”

Asked if he would be giving an address to Irish citizens about the energy crisis, taoiseach Micheál Martin said:

“We won’t be doing one today, but obviously we’re keeping everything under review.”

Back to Ukraine, it is becoming very clear – not that there were any particular doubts before – that Russia is not interested in the Ukrainian proposals for the Easter ceasefire.

The Russian foreign ministry dismissed them as “a PR stunt by Ukraine,” which they said is merely “intended to [allow Ukraine to] make up for losses and continue fighting,” Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, former Czech prime minister Petr Fiala responded to Trump’s comments earlier today, warning that “a US withdrawal from Nato would be a major mistake.”

“It would harm not only Europe, but the United States itself and would have a negative impact on the entire world,” he said.

Fiala said he believed “it will not ultimately come to that,” but warned that “the mere fact that president Donald Trump is publicly considering this possibility clearly shows that we must wake up and start paying much more attention to our own security.”

“The world is more dangerous than before. If we want to maintain our independence, freedom, and quality of life, we must recognise all the challenges and threats and we must act,” he said.

Fiala led the Czech Republic for four years between 2021 and 2025, leaving the office after last year’s parliamentary election.

Meanwhile, French president Emmanuel Macron praised Europe’s “predictability” during a visit to Japan, contrasting it with countries that “could hurt you without even informing you” in an apparent swipe at Donald Trump, AFP reported.

Picking up his famous “fo shur” speech in his Davos speech earlier this year (but without the sunglasses this time round), Macron pointedly praised Europe, despite some of its perceived shortcomings.

“I’m well aware that sometimes Europe can be seen as a continent that is slower than others,” Macron told an audience of Japanese business leaders and investors in Tokyo.

“But predictability has value, and we have demonstrated that over all these past years and, dare I say, even these past weeks: we are where you know we will go,” he added.

That’s not bad, in times like these, believe me.

Macron pointedly criticised countries that said they were “going much faster” than their allies, but “you don’t know whether the day after tomorrow they will still be in that position, and whether tomorrow they won’t make a decision that could hurt you without even informing you”.

The remark was interpreted by AFP to be a reference to the month-long US-Israeli war on Iran, which has responded by virtually closing the vital strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of the oil imported by Japan normally transits.

Separately, the commission declined to comment on Trump’s latest outburst reported in the Telegraph (11:06), reiterating their policy to “not comment on comments.”

Meanwhile, the European Union has sought to ramp up pressure on Hungary to drop its veto on the €90bn loan for Ukraine, with the European Commission saying it will push ahead with its preparatory work for the loan to be paid out.

The commission said it would draft a legal text setting out the details of the first payment of €45bn in 2026 and what the funds would be used for, and send it to the European Council to be formally approved by the bloc’s 27 leaders.

The logic is that should be merely a formality given the leaders’ original decision to back the loan in December last year, and a formal pivot by Hungary’s would “constitute a breach of the principle of loyal cooperation” in the bloc by Viktor Orbán.

The plan “builds on a large quantity of information submitted by Ukraine that we collectively worked out with the Ukrainian authorities,” commission spokesperson Balazs Ujvari explained.

He said there is a number of other documents that need to be adopted before the money can be paid out, but the commission is “doing whatever we can to ensure that all bits and pieces fall in place as soon as possible.”

As my colleague Jennifer Rankin points out, a few months ago we heard repeatedly that Ukraine was going to run out of money by the beginning of the second quarter, which, erm, happens to be today.

The commission said that this is pretty much why they are progressing the paperwork on the loan – but that still needs a change of heart (or, erm, government) from Hungary.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy reported an overnight Russian drone attack on Lutsk in northwestern Ukraine, saying it “hit purely civilians facilities,” including food warehouses and a residential building.

“In total, Russia used 339 drones against Ukraine during the night, around 200 of them ‘shaheds’,” he said.

He made his frustration with Russia very clear:

“We proposed a ceasefire for Easter – in response, we’re getting ‘shaheds.’ We also proposed a ceasefire specifically regarding energy infrastructure – the Russians ignore this and once again attempt to strike our substations and transformers.

Ukraine is working with partners to expand joint capabilities to protect lives, while Russia continues to prolong the war in Europe, and by sharing its intelligence with the Iranian regime it is openly investing in fueling war in the Middle East and the Gulf.

Russia is the global threat, and its disregard for life and peace is what obstructs any diplomacy.”

Zelenskyy said that he was expecting a “pretty busy diplomatic day,” with “many contacts already … scheduled.”

But Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna replied to his post on social media, summing up the situation as:

Ukraine proposed a ceasefire for Easter. Russia responded with a swarm of drones targeting civilians.

Meanwhile, back on Russia and Ukraine, the Kremlin showed no appetite for making concessions in any potential peace talks as it said that the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy should have taken the difficult decision to withdraw his forces from the Donbas area “yesterday” in order to end what it called the “hot phase” of the war.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov made the comments in response to a question about remarks made a day earlier by Zelenskiy who reportedly said that Moscow had given Ukraine a two-month deadline to withdraw its troops from Donbas or face tougher terms in any potential peace agreement, Reuters reported.

During his press conference, Starmer also spoke about his intention to get closer to the European Union.

Replying to a question from the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot, he said:

“I do think that we should strengthen our cooperation on defence, security, energy, emissions and the economy. …

I’m ambitious that we can do more in relation to the single market, because I think that’s hugely in our economic interests.

Obviously, this is a matter of negotiation and discussion with the EU, but the summit we have this year will not be just be a stocktake summit where we look at actually the ten strands that we put in place last year. It will be a deliberate ambition on our part to go further than that and to cooperate more deeply, including in the economic sphere.”

Earlier on, he explained that “it is increasingly clear that as the world continues down this volatile path, our long-term national interest requires closer partnership with our allies in Europe and with the European Union.”

Again, more on that on the UK blog:

The UK’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, is the first one to react to Trump’s comments in The Telegraph, as he gets asked about it at his No10 press conference just now.

He defends Nato as “the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen,” and while he doesn’t respond to Trump’s comments, he says:

“Let me say a number of things in response to that. Firstly, Nato is the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen, and it has kept us safe for many decades. And we are fully committed to Nato.

Secondly, that whatever the pressure on me and others, whatever the noise, I’m going to act in the British national interest in all the decisions that I make. And that’s why I’ve been absolutely clear that this is not our war, and we’re not going to get dragged into it.”

For more lines from Starmer, check our UK politics live blog:

Trump’s latest comments come as he increasingly hardens his language against European allies, blaming him for difficulties in his Iran operation.

In last days, he specifically targeted European allies, calling them “cowards” and telling them to “build up some delayed courage” and take control over the strait of Hormuz.

He and his senior officials also criticised a number of specific countries, particularly Spain, which has been most vocally critical of the US-Israeli war against Iran, and France.

The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, warned last night about the sharply escalating frustration with Nato, as he told Fox News:

“We are going to have to reexamine the value of Nato and that alliance for our country. Ultimately, that’s a decision for the president to make … but I do think, unfortunately, we are going to have to reexamine whether or not this alliance that has served this country well for a while is still serving that purpose or has now become a one-way street where America is simply in a position to help Europe but when we need the help of our allies, they deny us basing rights and overflight.

I think these are very legitimate questions that we need to be asking and these are going to have to be very carefully examined after this conflict is over.”

Italy is the latest country to risk the US administration’s anger, after it has denied the use of an airbase in Sicily to US military planes carrying weapons for the war in Iran after the US did not follow the required authorisation procedure.

US president Donald Trump has suggested to the Telegraph newspaper that he is “strongly considering” pulling the US out of Nato, saying the alliance was “a paper tiger” amid his growing frustration with the European partners’s refusal to join the Iran war.

When he was seemingly asked if he would reconsider the US’s membership of the alliance after the conflict, he replied: “Oh yes, I would say [it’s] beyond reconsideration.”

“I was never swayed by Nato. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way,” he told the paper.

Repeating his increasingly strong criticism of the alliance, he added:

“We’ve been there automatically, including Ukraine. Ukraine wasn’t our problem. It was a test, and we were there for them, and we would always have been there for them. They weren’t there for us.”

Over in Germany, leading economic institutes cut their growth forecasts for the country, warning that surging inflation resulting from the Middle East war and rising energy costs would hit Europe’s top economy hard.

The German economy should grow by 0.6% in 2026, the seven institutes said, down from a September forecast of 1.3%, while inflation is predicted to stand at 2.8%, up from 2.0%.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone manufacturers are meeting Romanian defence ministry and army officials in Bucharest this week to discuss potential joint production under a new European Union rearmament funding mechanism, the ministry said in a statement quoted by Reuters.

Romania, an EU and Nato state, shares a 650-km land border with Ukraine and has had drones breach its airspace and fragments fall on its territory repeatedly since Russia began attacking Kyiv’s ports located across the Danube from Romania.

Reuters noted that the EU has allotted Romania €16.6bn under its new rearmament initiative SAFE, which will begin later this year, and defence minister Radu Miruță said the country wanted to spend 200 million euros for joint drone production.

Fifteen Ukrainian companies will continue discussing the project in Bucharest in the coming days, he added.

With most eyes still on the Middle East, and growing US frustrations with European Nato allies' over their decisions to deny the use of their bases for offensive operations in Iran, there is often much less focus on Ukraine.

But the two universes will collide today, as the wartorn country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will sit down for talks with the US negotiators to discuss the last steps to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking to EU foreign ministers visiting Ukraine yesterday, Zelenskyy brought up his proposal of a ceasefire over the Easter holidays, saying he wanted the US to support this idea.

“We are waiting for a response from Russia. Tomorrow I will speak with the American team, including on this issue. We hope for results,” he said.

I will keep an eye for the latest updates.

Meanwhile, Europe is increasingly thinking about how to soften the economic blow of the continuing Middle East war and energy disruptions, with growing concerns about what it could mean for several EU countries who are particularly vulnerable to any disruptions to imports from the Gulf. Gulp.

I will bring you all the latest here.

It’s Wednesday, 1 April 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.

Good morning.